The Role of Cash - Part 2

Aurum Weekly Access - 8/14/13
By Michael McKeown, CFA, CPA - Director of Research
 
Cash deserves an allocation within portfolios.  Last week we covered why for liquidity management reasons, but its importance  extends to  opportunity  risk management.
 

Combining "opportunity" and "risk" into a single phrase for holding cash boils down to one reason, because the price paid for an asset matters.  When valuations of assets are too high, the expected future returns are low.  When valuations are too low, the expected future returns are high.

 

An example of this below is the Shiller P/E.  Named for Professor Robert Shiller, but orginiating from Ben Graham (Warren Buffett's value investing mentor), the Shiller P/E seeks to average out the ups and downs of the business cycle by normalizing the past ten years of earnings.

shillerpe

Source:  Asness, Shiller[1]
It has some efficacy in predicting future returns, but most interestingly, it shows when the starting P/E (valuation) is low (left), historical returns are higher (Average  Real 10 Year Return).  When the starting P/E (valuation) is high, historical returns are lower.
 
"Investing is simple – but not easy."  - Warren Buffett
 

After a period of outperformance above expectations is typically when values are high and thus future returns low, and thus when one would should trim or sell. Still, this is also the time when our behavioral investing shortcomings as human beings come in to play and makes it difficult to sell.  Conversely, after an asset class underperforms dramatically and has news stories saying how terrible of an investment it is, future expected returns are above average.  The rational economic agent should buy or increase holdings, but the brain reacts to the danger of losing in the short-term and tells us to stay away.

 

Cash should be the default holding when an asset class becomes fully or overvalued, as holding it expecting it to go higher is not investing, but speculating on whether a "greater fool" will come along and buy the asset at an even higher price.

 

Hence, cash serves as a risk management tool for portfolio construction.  In the same sense, it serves as the dry powder for future opportunity.  Waiting for the 'fat pitch' to come down the plate, cash offers optionality to respond to attractive valuations served up by an asset class that falls out of favor for other investors.

rwithspx

 
During periods of instability in capital markets, asset prices tend to converge and go down together, precisely when a portfolio needs the diversificaiton benefits of multiple assets.  The chart below is the correlation of asset classes with the S&P 500.  Distressed periods are months when the S&P 500 fell more than 3%, or the 15% worst performing months.

 

In contrast to many asset classes, a great attribute of cash its zero correlation with other assets – in both normal and distressed marekts.  This provides the liquidity necessary to take advantage of an attractive 'option' when presented.

 

Today, with U.S. equity markets hitting all time highs and large inflows into bond funds the last few years, money markets as a percentage of total assets are at all time lows.  This, alone, is not a reason to increase cash as an allocation. 
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Nonetheless, if asset classes deviate from the initial portfolio's target policy ranges, then prudent investors should adhere to the investment process.  Holding cash as an opportunity risk management tool makes sense to us as investors with a long-term valuation focus.

 
 
[1] Asness, Clifford, Ph.D., AQR. "An Old Friend: The Stock Market's Shiller P/E." November 2012.
 
Important Disclosures 
  
This material is based on public information as of the specified date, and may be stale thereafter. We make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Aurum Wealth Management Group and/or Aurum Advisory Services has no obligation to provide updated information on the securities or information mentioned herein. Actual events may differ from those assumed and changes to any assumptions may have a material impact on any projections or estimates. Other events not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the projections or estimates. Certain assumptions may have been made for modeling purposes only to simplify the presentation and/or calculation of any projections or estimates, and Aurum Wealth Management Group and/or Aurum Advisory Services does not represent that any such assumptions will reflect actual future events. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that estimated returns or projections will be realized or that actual returns or performance results will not materially differ from those estimated herein. This material should not be viewed as advice or recommendations with respect to asset allocation, any particular investment, or any tax advice.
 

 

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